06/11/13 @ 08:41 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20131106/yingbang-nahan

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　GBP:Industrial production data was on the weak side in August, with a modest bounce-back of 0.6% MoM after the 1.1% decline seen previously. Sterling would certainly welcome a stronger reading, which would help sterling achieve a stronger foothold above the 1.60 level.

　　英镑：工业生产数据八月份较为疲软，上次出现1.1%的月环比下降后有了一个0.6%的小幅反弹。英镑当然喜欢强势数据，这会帮助其在1.60之上获得稳固的基础。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　There are two interesting and diverging trends in Europe. Both the ECB and Bank of England announced various forms of “forward guidance”in the middle of the year, promising to keep rates low for a long time. Both are unravelling in very different ways, with the pressure on the ECB to lower rates (or more likely offer alternative policy prescriptions) whilst the Bank of England has continued to see firmer than expected data undermining the view that rates could be steady for a further two years. This has played out well on EURGBP so far this month, which has fallen nearly 2%. This is the biggest one week fall since March of this year. Policy action, or hints thereof, from the ECB this week could well see this trend enhanced, with the early October lows of 0.83327 in focus.

　　欧洲出现两个让人感兴趣的不同趋势，欧洲央行和英格兰银行在年中宣布了多项“先期指导”，承诺长时间维持低息。两家银行都在以不同方式解决问题。欧洲央行的压力就是降息（或者更有可能提供政策方面的法规）而英格兰银行则继续认为比预期要稳定的数据会破坏利率可以再稳定两年的看法。这种方式在欧元英镑方面进行的不错，此货币对已经下降了将近2%。这是自今年三月以来下降最大的一周。这周欧洲央行的政策变动，或者其影响，可能会增强这种趋势，而十月初的低点0.83327则是焦点。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　EUR:The single currency seeing some recovery during the Asia session, spending most of it above the 1.35 level on a general weaker dollar tone.

　　GBP:As we’ve mentioned before, sterling really struggling for air above the 1.60 area, but the stronger than expected services PMI data for September allowed for a push towards 1.61. The Bank’s forward guidance on rates is looking increasingly fragile.

　　AUD:Trade balance was better than expected, allowing a small push higher in the Aussie. Data showed downward revision to August number, with September at AUD -284mln. So far, push back above the 0.9500 level sustained, but remains lower vs. level seen just ahead of RBA statement.

　　欧元：亚洲盘口出现一些恢复迹象，在此期间欧元多处在1.35之上，而美元较为弱势。

　　英镑：正如我们此前提到的，英镑一直在挣扎着要突破到1.60之上，不过九月服务业PMI 数据很强势会让英镑突破到1.61之上。英格兰银行的利率先期指导看起来越来越脆弱。

　　澳元：贸易平衡比预期要好，让澳元小有上涨。数据显示出八月的数字下降，九月份的贸易平衡为－28400万。到目前为止，回到0.9500之上还是可持续的，不过在澳洲联储的声明之前澳元还是走低。

　　FX Alerts

　　GBP ABOVE 1.61 AFTER PRODUCTION DATA

　　生产数据发布后英镑到了1.61之上

　　06/11/13 @ 09:32 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20131106/shengchanshuju-fabuhou-yingbang-zai-161-zhishang

　　GBP up 25 pips to 1.6115 after industrial production data former than expected at 0.9% MoM. EURGBP at 0.8378.

　　工业生产数据比预期要稳固，月环比为0.9%。英镑因此上升了25个pip到了1.6115。欧元英镑位于0.8378。