让外汇市场发生波动的关键催化剂是欧洲央行在昨日会议上宣布降息。欧洲央行在其11月会议上的动作比我们之前想象的要激进，将主要再融资利率从0.50％下调至0.25％（历史新低）。欧元兑美元已冲破日云盖（1.3375-1.3465），触及1.3296，为9月13日以来首次到达该水平，随后因空头回补而反弹至1.3450，进入亚洲市场后，下滑至1.3389-1.3425区间内震荡。由于欧元空头实力加强，我们继续看跌欧元兑美元。期权障碍依然为1.3450-75。期权买入价见于1.3390，止损价可追踪至1.3375（日云底）以下。亚洲主权买家很可能会继续在1.3300上买入。

　　在英国，正如市场预期，英国央行维持政策利率在0.50％不变以及资产购买目标在3750亿英镑不变。政策宣布后，并未举办新闻发布会。英镑兑美元快速下跌至1.6010，而且在亚洲市场中仍在21日移动均线（1.6077）之上出价。趋势和势头指标仍处于红色区域（MACD指标位于零线以下），限制了上扬空间。本周收盘价如高于1.6118，则应该会提振英镑多头。

　　美国昨日释放的第三季度GDP增长数据意外高于预期（初步值为增长2.8％，高于预期值2.0％和前值2.5％）。美元指数已扩大涨幅至81.46，创9月13日以来的最高水平，随后在纽约市场中因美国即将释放就业数据而大幅回落至80.65。定于今天下午释放的美国10月非农就业数据很可能会确认市场预估值的悲观性，减弱美元多头的热情，并拖累美国国债收益率。美国十年期国债收益率在亚洲市场中回落至2.5918。关键支撑位为2.4750％（5-9月上扬期间之61.8％的斐波那契回调水平）。美联储或将在今年12月至明年1月期间削减每月债券购买量的预期应该会限制上行空间。

　　在日本，10月官方外汇储备量从12735亿美元微增至12768亿美元。日本当局证实，第三季度一直没有使用直接外汇干预。日本财务省11月1日的数据显示，外国投资者对日本债券和股票的兴趣有所增加。在纽约市场中，美国GDP公布后，美元兑日元清理了99.00上的卖出价，之后因大规模的欧元兑日元抛售以及较低的美国国债收益率而大幅回落至97.62。期权买入价见于98.35/50、99.30以及100.00。在下行路上，200日移动均线（97.74）是首个技术支撑位。从12日和26日移动指标来看，积极偏见应该会继续存在，以便在97.40上方收盘。

　　今天的经济日历由以下数据组成：瑞士和瑞典10月失业率；德国9月经常帐、贸易平衡以及进出口数据；法国9月经常帐、贸易平衡以及 9月工业生产和制造业生产；瑞士9月零售销售年率；瑞典9月工业生产月率和年率；英国9月贸易平衡和建造工程完成量月率和年率；加拿大10月新屋开工量、失业率及就业人数净变化；美国10月非农就业人数变化、私营部门和制造业就业人数、10月失业率、9月个人收入与消费支出、9月PCE平减物价指数月率和年率、核心个人消费支出月率和年率以及密歇根大学11月信心指数。

　　The key catalyzer of volatility in FX was the ECB rate cut in yesterday’s meeting. ECB acted more aggressive than we thought in its November meeting by lowering the main refinancing rate from 0.50% to the fresh historical low of 0.25%. EURUSD drilled down the daily cloud cover (1.3375/1.3465), hit 1.3296 for the first time since Sep 13th, rebounded to 1.3450 on short covering and then eased to 1.3389/1.3425 range in Asia. As EUR-bears gain momentum, we remain bearish on EURUSD. Option barriers remain at 1.3450/75. Option bids are seen at 1.3390, stops trail below 1.3375 (daily cloud base). Asian sovereign names are likely to remain bid at 1.3300.

　　In UK, the BoE kept the policy rate unchanged at 0.50% and the asset purchases target at GBP 375bn as expected. No press conference followed the policy announcement. GBPUSD shortly traded down 1.6010 post-BoE and remained well bid above the 21-day moving average (1.6077) in Asia. Trend and momentum indicators are still in the red zone (MACD below the zero line) limiting the upside. A close above the weekly high of 1.6118 should boost the GBP-bulls.

　　The US printed surprisingly higher-than-expected 3Q growth data yesterday (prelim +2.8%, versus 2.0% exp. & 2.5% last). DXY extended gains to 81.46 - highest since September 13th, then aggressively sold-off to 80.65 in New York ahead of US jobs data. Due in the afternoon, the October nonfarm payrolls are likely to confirm the pessimistic market estimates, temper enthusiasm in USD-bulls and weigh on US yields. The 10-year treasury yields retreated to 2.5918% in Asia. Key support is the 2.4750% - fibo 61.8% on May-Sep rise. The expectations on Fed starting to taper the monthly bond purchases by December-January should limit the downside.

　　In Japan, the official foreign reserves increased marginally from USD 1,273.5bn to USD 1,276.8bn in October. The Ministry of Japan confirmed that there has been no direct FX intervention in Q3. Nov 1st MoF data showed that the foreign interest in Japanese bonds and stocks increased. USDJPY cleared offers at 99.00 in New York post-US GDP, then aggressively sold-off to 97.62 on massive EURJPY sales and low US yields. Option barriers are seen at 98.35/50, 99.30 and 100.00. On the downside, the 200-day moving average (97.74) is the first technical support. According to MACD 12, 26 day indicator, the positive bias should remain for a close above 97.40.

　　Today, the economic calendar consists of Swiss and Swedish October Unemployment Rates, German September Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, French September Current Account, Trade Balance, September Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Swiss September Retail Sales Real y/y, Swedish September Industrial Production m/m & y/y, UK September Trade Balance and Construction Output m/m & y/y, Canadian October Housing Starts, Unemployment Rate and Net Change in Employment, US October Change in Nonfarm, Private and Manufacturing Payrolls, October Unemployment Rate, US September Personal Income & Spending, September PCE Deflator m/m & y/y and PCE Core m/m & y/y and University of Michigan November (Prelim) Confidence Index.