外汇市场开始变得越来越活跃,但新闻流动性和市场参与率仍然很低。亚洲市场开始之初,美元兑日元大幅下跌,主因是美国国债收益率下跌,过度买入条件缓和(但未能突破105.50)。据新闻来源,黑田东彦表示,2%的通胀目标至关重要,但尚未给出实现该目标的时间框架。他还认为,在加息后上调或下调消费税之前,需求会大幅增加。由于东京市场依然在休市,整个市场充斥着各种抛售订单,推动美元兑日元下滑至104.10。日元复杂体演绎着类似的交易形态,英镑兑日元未能突破175.00,而是暴跌300个点,而欧元兑日元先是在145.10附近震荡,随后大幅下跌至142.10。昨日释放的中国非制造业PMI下滑至54.6,引发的悲观情绪挥之不去,致使区域股指走软。中国服务业PMI增长率连续第四个月下滑,进一步证明世界上第二大经济体在2013年年末已失去动力。沉重的空头回补和欧元兑澳元多头平仓使澳元兑美元在美国市场表现突出,随后在亚洲市场于0.8910-15区间内开盘。在亚洲市场上午时段,澳元兑美元跌破0.8900,亚洲股市开盘走低,风险情绪转为避险。日经指数休市(将于下周一重新开市),但恒生指数下跌2.36%,上证综指下跌1.24%。欧洲股市转红,交易偏见是进一步下行。布伦特原油价格在上个交易日中录得近半年来的最大单日跌幅,今日朝每桶108美元上涨,但市场预期利比亚或将增加供应量且美国库存或出现堆积情况,所以涨幅有限。就在开盘之际,瑞士释放了KoF领先指标,从1.85进一步上升至1.95。进一步证明瑞士经济正在全速增长。我们预计今天晚些时候释放的瑞士PMI也会表现突出。美元兑瑞郎继续从上周五的新低中恢复,在亚洲市场中反弹至0.9025。在欧洲市场,交易者将会密切关注英国建筑业PMI数据。 FX markets are starting to get more active yet news flow and participation remain low. USDJPY fell sharply at the start of the Asian session as US Treasury yields drifted lower and over bought positions were unwound (failure to break 105.50). With Tokyo still on the holiday break, sell orders flooded the market, pushing USDJPY down to 104.10. A similar pattern was played out across the JPY complex, as GBPJPY failed to rally above 175.00 before collapsing 300 pips and EURJPY faltered at 145.10, then fell to 142.10. This lingering pessimism was due to yesterday China's non-manufacturing PMI falling 54.6, forced weakness in the regional equity indices. The Nikkei was closed (reopens Monday) but the Hang Seng fell -2.36% and Shanghai composite dropped -1.24%. European equity markets are turning red and the bias is for further downside. Right at the open Switzerland released KoF leading indicators that reported a further rise to 1.95 from 1.85. Further evidence that the Swiss economy is firing on all cylinders. We suspect that Swiss PMI will print marginally lower, on seasonal factors, late today. In the European session, traders will be watching UK PMI construction data. |
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