19/02/14 @ 09:00 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20140219/meiyuan-xiajiang The underlying theme of dollar weakness has continued overnight, with the main dollar index (DXY) hitting a new low for the year below the 80.0 level. The single currency itself managed to stage something of a come-back yesterday above the 1.3750 area. Expectations of more policy action and the passing of year end factors which had boosted the euro at the end of 2013 made for a soft start to the year, but so far in February there have only been 3 down days for EURUSD. The minutes to the January FOMC meeting will be released later today, where the main focus will be the Fed’s interpretation of the slowdown in data seen to that point. Also of interest will be UK data, although the latest Bank of England Inflation Report has downgraded the significance of the unemployment rate as a tool of their forward guidance on policy. To this end, the minutes to the February meeting will also be of interest to judge the discussion around the change in forward guidance announced last week. Overall in FX, it is the weaker dollar that remains the main story, with the recovery in emerging market currencies from the lows seen at the end of January also putting some downward pressure on the US currency. Also of note was data yesterday showing foreign investors shedding US assets and China in particular selling US Treasuries as the fastest pace for two years. 前一天美元疲软的局面仍在继续,而主要的美元指数(DXY)达到今年的新低,低于80.0 这个水平。昨天欧元自己在努力尝试要恢复到1.3750 这个区域之上。由于预期有更多政策变动,再加上年末的因素,欧元在2013 年底得到提振,而今年开始这种局面比较疲软,不过到二月为止欧元美元还只遇见过三个低点日。一月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的会议内容纪要将在今天晚些时候发布,其中主要的焦点就是美联储对当前放缓局面的解释。 另一个让人感兴趣的是英国的数据,尽管英格兰银行最新的通胀报告已经让失业率作为他们政策先期指导工具的重要性降低了。因此,二月份会议的内容纪要对于判断上周宣布的先期指导中的变化还是让人感兴趣的。总之对于外汇来说,故事的主线就是疲软的美元,还有一月底新兴市场货币从低点恢复也给了美国货币一些下行的压力。还要注意的是昨天一些外国投资者抛出美国资产,特别是中国卖出美国国库卷的速度是两年来最快的。 FX Alerts STERLING WRONG-FOOTED BY RISE IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 失业率上升让英镑措手不及 19/02/14 @ 09:37 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140219/shiyelv-shangsheng-rang-yingbang-shiqupingheng Sterling dropping below 1.67 after surprise rise in unemployment rate from 7.1% to 7.2%. Earnings rising 1.1%. Cable down 60 pips to 1.6665. 失业率让人惊讶的从7.1% 上升到了7.2%,英镑因此下跌到1.67 之下。收益上升了1.1%。英镑美元下降60 点到了1.6665。 FX Alerts FOMC MINUTES FOMC 会议纪要 19/02/14 @ 19:11 GMT by FxProDealing Desk http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140219/fomc-huiyijiyao FOMC minutes show participants waiting updated guidance soon. EURUSD dropped 15 pips and now trading at 1.3740 美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议内容显示出与会者在等待先期指导的更新。欧元美元下跌了15 点,目前位于1.3740。 |
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