The overnight session has seen further creeping strength of the dollar,building on the gains seen during Tuesday.The dollar index has touched levels last seen mid-September last year and so far this week,we have also seen EURUSD make fresh lows for the year.Sterling is now heading for its seventh consecutive week of losses vs.the dollar.Such a run of weekly losses has not been seen since August 2008 in the midst of the global financial crisis when the dollar was rising against pretty much everything.Back then,cable fell 12%,this time it is down just over 3%.Of course,back then was very different times,but the difference does illustrate the lower volatility environment we are currently in.For today,sterling is going to be keenly watching the minutes to the August MPC meeting.After the Inflation Report,few surprises are likely,but there remains the low probability but high impact scenario of at least one member voting for higher rates,which would certainly cause sterling to reverse at least some of the recent losses as short positions are covered.Elsewhere,the Fed minutes are also released this evening and will watched for signs of any change in tone.　　

昨天的交易种美元强势继续增长，在周二的基础上持续增加。这一周到目前为止美元指数也达到了去年九月中的水平，而欧元美元则达到今年新低。英镑目前连续七周针对美元出现损失。这样每周都出现损失是2008年8月全球金融危机以来都不曾见过的，其时美元几乎针对所有资产都出现上涨的现象。那个时候，英镑美元下跌了12%，这一次下降的幅度仅仅高于3%。当然，那个时候和现在不同，不过这种差别也解释了目前的这种低波动环境。今天，英镑讲密切关注MPC八月会议的内容。通胀报告发布之后，就再也没有让人吃惊的东西了，不过有成员投票赞同加息还是较低可能性并且造成的影响也会很大；这种情况肯定会让英镑逆转至少是目前的损失，因为短仓会得到回补。此外，美联储会议纪要也将在今天晚上发布，我们也关注其内容腔调的出现变化的迹象。　　

Overnight,we’ve seen some volatility on the Aussie as RBA governor Stevens has given testimony to the Australian parliament.Whilst the currency was initially higher to the 0.9320 area,we’ve seen a pull-back,partially on the dollar strength,but in the background were the Governor’s comments on the currency,where he pointed out that the risk of an Aussie fall had been“materially underestimated”by the market.It was not really a significant change in tone,but was certainly a reminder that the central bank remains sensitive to currency developments and acts as a further warning to those wanting to push the currency higher.　　

昨天，我们发现澳洲联储总裁Stevens在澳洲议会发表述职演讲后澳元出现波动。虽然澳元一开始上涨到了0.9320这个区域，但随后又拉回，部分是因为美元的强势，但归根结底还是这位总裁对澳元的评论；他指出澳元下跌的风险被市场“实质上被低估了”。如果这不算腔调上的显著改变的话，也肯定是一种提醒，也　　

就是说央行仍然对货币的情况很敏感，而且也是对那些想推高货币的人的一种警告。　　

GBPUSD Weekly 2008–2014　　

2008－2014每周英镑美元走势　　

两位MPC成员投票赞成英国加息　　

Sterling up around 30 pips initially after minutes to Aug MPC minutes show two members voting for higher rates.Once again,the currency faces another conflicting message on the path of interest rates.Those voting for higher rates focusing in part taking a tactical perspective,saying it would allow the MPC to deliver on a gradual normalisation of policy.On the other side,the majority saw that there was insufficient evidence of inflationary pressures to justify an increase.Cable has pushed up to the 1.6665 level initially and further short-covering is the risk from here.After the Inflation Report last week,the focus was more on the evolution of the data,but today’s release swings the balance back to tactics and the balance between keeping rates lower for longer and the advantage of an earlier but more gradual approach to policy.　　

MPC八月会议内容发布后，显示出有两位成员投票赞成加息；此后英镑一开始上升了30点。随后，英镑在利率方面又面临另一个令人感到矛盾的信息。投票赞成加息而且比较关注采用战术眼光看问题的人说这种情况可以让MPC的政策逐渐且缓慢的正常化。另一方面，大多数人认为，通胀压力下必须让利率上涨是没有足够的证据的。一开始英镑美元已经推高到了1.6665，而更多空头回补则是此处的风险。上周通胀报告发布后，关注的焦点更多是在于数据的变化，不过今天发布的数据则将这种平衡带到了战术层面，变成长期维持利率在低水平和更早且慢慢的回归政策之间的一种平衡。