Forex market are trading in an unconvincing sideways pattern as traders focus on the US treasury markets. EURUSD failed to find direction during the Asian session and traded in a constricted 1.3260 to 1.3280 range. However, FX traders have been shying away from the EUR as it has lacked trading characteristics of a safe haven or risky currency and therefore hard to measure. AUDUSD had a choppy bearish session but ended the session low around 0.9285 as President Obama's speech on Syria and Consumer Confidence numbers failed to generate demand. Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence jumped to 110.6 in September from 105.7, the highest level since late 2010. As fears over a US-led military strike subside, good China data, improvement of Japanese manufacturers' optimism, renewed EM appetite and rally in US yields have given the USDJPY a strong bid in recent days. USDJPY pushed higher to 100.60 but eased to 100.20 as Europe is walking in. Regional equity indices are trending water around fair value which could indicate a daily pullback from the recent buying frenzy. Nikkei is up 0.01%, the Hang Seng down -0.36% while Shanghai remains the leader at 0.21% (at the time of writing). US 10 yrs yields have now rallied to 2.97% indication -- a clear expectations of tighter US monetary policy. On this note, we could see some USD improvements against the majors.
The highlight of the evening was the much anticipated and overly hyped President Obama’s scheduled speech on Syria. Earlier in the week, the content was expected to revolve around building a case for military action to the American public. However, the introduction of a Russian lead solution for Syria to hand-over all their chemical weapons to international control, shifted the emphasis of the speech. US president Obama stated that the U.S. is not the world's policeman but when with modest effort and risk it can halt children from being gassed to death then the U.S. has an obligation to act. He went on to say that statements of condemnation are merely not sufficient and sometime a military action is required. In addition, the congressional vote on a military response in Syria has been postponed indefinitely to purse a diplomatic strategy. Media outlets are now reporting that French Draft U.N. Security Council Resolution would provide Syria 15 days to give the UN a complete list of all chemical weapons.
Another light economic calendar day with the UK dominate release. Given the recent recovery in UK growth, we could see a strong all in claimant counts and unemployment rate. Should the UK surprise the upside, this would clearly call into question the BoE’s projections of unemployment to fall below 7.0% by 3Q 2016 and push up expectations for rate hikes. GBP has been supported by stronger economic data and this would continue with a strong labor read. 投资者都在关注美国国债市场,使外汇市场进入一个没有说服力的横盘整理格局之中。欧元兑美元在亚洲市场未能找到方向,维持1.3260-1.3280窄幅震荡。然而,由于欧元缺乏避险或风险货币的交易特征,外汇投资者一直选择回避欧元。在美国总统有关叙利亚的讲话以及消费者信心数据未能产生需求之后,澳元兑美元经历了一个震荡不止的看跌市场,但最终收于低价0.9285左右。澳大利亚西太平洋银行发布的9月消费者信心指数从105.7上升到110.6,为2010年底以来的最高水平。市场对以美国为首的西方国家发动军事打击的担忧有所消退,中国发布了利好数据,日本制造商的乐观情绪也正在好转,新兴市场风险偏好重新上扬,美国国债收益率有所反弹,这一切因素使得美元兑日元在最近几天需求旺盛。美元兑日元先是走高至100.60,但随着欧洲市场的开盘,该货币对又回落至100.20。区域股指在公允价值附近戏水,这可能表明它们当天将从近期抢购狂潮中回撤。日经指数上涨0.01%,恒生指数下跌0.36%,而上涨综指仍然领涨0.21%(撰写本新闻时)。美国10年期国债收益率现在已经上涨至2.97%,显示美国具有明显的收紧货币政策的预期。在此,我们可能会看到美元兑其主要对手货币会有所上扬。随着有关紧急攻打叙利亚的担忧的缓解,布伦特原油期货在过去两天了下跌超过4%,目前已持稳在每桶111美元以上。 昨晚备受瞩目,美国总统奥巴马就叙利亚问题所发表的讲话被过分夸大。本周早些时候,市场预计其讲话内容可能围绕向美国公众建立一个采取军事行动的情况。然而,在俄罗斯提议让叙利亚把化学武器交由国际社会控制之后,市场就将重点转向奥巴马的讲话。美国总统奥巴马表示,美国并非世界警察,但当“做出少许努力,冒着少量风险”就可以避免儿童被毒气毒害致死时,美国就有义务采取行动。他接着表示,仅发表谴责声明还不够,有时需要采取军事行动。此外,国会已无限期推迟对叙动武表决,以寻求通过外交策略来解决。媒体现在报道称,法国提交给联合国安理会的决议草案要求叙利亚在15天内向联合国提交所有化学武器的完整清单。 今天的经济日历再次清单,英国数据将占主导地位。鉴于英国经济近期有所复苏,我们可能会看到强劲的失业申请人数和失业率。如果英国的这些数据意外上扬,这显然会让市场质疑英国央行的失业率预测——到2016年第三季度,失业率将降至7.0%以下,同时会提升加息预期。英镑一直得到强劲经济数据的支撑,预计会继续得到强劲劳工市场数据的支撑。 |
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