10/03/14 @ 09:10 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20140310/rengran-jinzhang

　　As always, the desire is for clarity from the US jobs numbers. The reality is that we are only slightly wiser after the event. The headline establishment survey number was stronger than expected at 175k, with positive prior month revisions, whilst the unemployment rate (based on a survey of households), nudged higher to 6.7%. The underlying details suggested that the weather did not have a major impact. The message from Fed officials (latest being Plosser) is that the hurdle to adjusting the current pace of asset purchases remains high, so for the time being the market remains convinced that further tapering is likely at the next Fed meeting on 19th March.

　　The start of this week is seeing the focus on China and the disappointing trade data released over the weekend. Exports were down 18% in annual terms, from having rising 10.6% in January. It’s likely that some of this is down to the lunar new year holiday (which was later this year vs. 2013), so markets did treat the numbers with an air of caution. The reference rate for the yuan was set lower, back to levels seen early December on USDCNY. Overall, the feeling is that we are going to see another week of nervous trading, both emanating from events in China, but also the ongoing tensions with regards to tensions in the Ukraine.

　　In Europe, it is sterling and the euro that are catching the eye on the charts. After the ECB meeting of last week, where no fresh hints of further policy easing to come were given, the single currency has moved further to the 1.40 level on EURUSD and pushed a 1 month high on EURGBP. On sterling, we are seeing early weakness on cable, dipping below the 1.6700 level.

　　和往常一样，大家想要清楚了解美国就业数据的含义。而事实则是我们只在事后才变得聪明一些。整体调查数据显示比预期要强势，为17 万5 千，原因之一是这个月之前还有正向修正。而失业率（根据对家庭的调查），上升到了6.7%。其中的细节预示着气候没有造成关键的影响。美联储官员（最新的就是Plosser）传递的信息就是目前调整资产购买步伐的阻碍仍然很大，因此从目前来看市场仍然相信三月十九日下次美联储会议上有可能实行进一步的紧缩。

　　这一周一开始焦点就在中国，令人失望的贸易数据则在周末发布。年度出口下降了18%，而一月份的时候是上升了10.6% 的。其原因之一有可能是中国农历新年（对比2013 今年有点晚），因此市场对这些数字没有谨慎对待。人民币的参考利率被调低，美元人民币回到了十二月初的水平。总之，我们的感觉就是下一周的交易会令人紧张，有中国的影响，也有目前乌克兰紧张局势的影响。

　　欧洲，图表上英镑和欧元最吸引眼球。上周欧洲央行的会议上没有给出实行进一步宽松政策的任何暗示，欧元方面，欧元美元继续靠近1.40 这个水平，而欧元英镑则达到一个月以来的搞掂。英镑方面，我们发现英镑美元出现疲软的迹象，下降到了1.6700 这个水平之下。