Most majors were confined to established ranges during the European session yesterday after the initial gyrations in the wake of the Japanese GDP data.The euro was perhaps the only standout to this,comments from ECB President Draghi later in the day throwing some further crumbs of hope to the market that the ECB could yet start buying government bonds if the deflation threat persists.Concerns regarding the global economy are clearly to the fore in the wake of the G20 meeting,not least because central banks are,to varying degrees,lacking in terms of the firepower to deal with further slippage in their respective economies.As we mentioned yesterday,this makes for a less trended FX environment vs.what was seen in the previous quarter as the anticipated divergences look less likely to pan out in the way that was anticipated a few months ago.　　

昨天日本GDP数据发布后，欧洲盘大多数主要货币在一开始的螺旋式变动之后都被限制在一个既定范围内。欧元则是其中唯一一个比较突出的，因为当天欧洲央行总裁Draghi的评论给市场带来了少许希望，就是如果通缩威胁继续下去，那么欧洲央行可能还不会开始购入政府债券。由于G20峰会，人们对全球经济的担忧开始加重，而这不仅仅是因为众多央行在不同程度上缺乏能力来处理各自国家中出现的进一步经济下滑问题。正如我们昨天提到的，这种情况让外汇环境中的趋势不如上个季度那么明显了，我们曾经预测的分化可能还不会以几个月前预测的方式来出现。　　

One of those expected divergences that has come back into line has been sterling.The push above 1.70 earlier this year was in part powered by an expected rate increase before the year end,which has failed to materialise.Indeed,it’s now more likely than not that the BoE will be having to explain an undershoot of the inflation target range(1%to 3%).The headline rate is seen holding steady at 1.2%tomorrow,although it’s notable that expectations from banks and other forecasts are more skewed towards the upside.This could give some scope for sterling to reverse some of the recent weakness,but the market does not appear to be willing to push against the tone of the Inflation Report seen last week.After UK inflation data at 09:30 GMT,German ZEW data at 10:00 will be in focus,with US PPI thereafter at 13:30 GMT.Elsewhere,markets getting increasingly more edgy regarding EURCHF as it continues to move lower towards the SNB’s 1.20 floor.　　

我们预期的分化之一英镑重新回到了轨道。年初上升到1.70部分是由于人们预期年末之前会加息，但实际上却没有。的确，目前英格兰银行更可能不得不解释一下为何无法达到通胀目标的范围（1%到3%）。明天发布的通胀整体比例可能维持在1.2%，不过值得注意的是银行的预期以及其他预测都更加倾向于会上行。这种情况让英镑有更多空间来逆转最近的疲软，不过看起来市场还不太愿意逆着上周通胀报告的趋势去走。格林尼治时间9点30分发布英国通胀数据后，还有10点的德国ZEW数据会成为焦点，格林尼治时间13点30分还有美国的PPI数据。此外，面对欧元瑞士法郎，市场变得越来越紧张，其原因就是这个货币对离开瑞士央行1.20的底线越来越近。