隔夜，货币市场大多时候都是区间震荡，资金都流向澳元和日元。澳洲联储已公布7月2日会议纪要；纪要显示，近期澳元下降可能会增加通胀，但预计通胀仍在目标范围内，且应该回为进一步宽松提供空间。澳洲联储还提到，澳元仍然很高，可能会进一步下跌。会议既要释放后，澳元兑美元反弹至0.9195，而发行利率依然稳定在0.9200-50区域。

　　昨日释放的美国6月零售销售有所回落，而市场预期刚好相反。早期获追捧的美元在纽约市场中大幅下跌，扭转了欧元和英镑的下行趋势。欧元兑美元今早从1.2994恢复至1.3096。欧盟27国新车注册量小幅下降，推动该货币对走高，而惠誉将EFSF的信用评级调降至AA  +并没有收集到市场的显着反应（！）。定于今早释放的CPI数据和德国和欧元区ZEW调查是今日影响欧元的主要数据。

　　与欧元兑美元类似的是，英镑兑美元在美国数据释放后下跌至1.5028，之后又迅速恢复至1.5100以上并在欧洲市场开盘后一路飙升至1.5143。今天上午公布的CPI成关键。市场预计6月通胀率将从2.7％上升至3.0％。通胀率如上升，应该会减弱扩大量化宽松的可能性，并支持英镑在1.5000上方的整合，而通胀率如意外下滑，则应该会给英镑带来压力。

　　在日本，汇市因休假缺乏事件，美元兑日元跌破100.00水平。投标买入价见于50日移动均线（99.54）上，主因是在数据拥挤交易日到来之前以及伯南克明日发表证词之前，风险偏好比较有限。

　　在新兴市场中，印度储备银行上调银行利率以抑制印度卢比走软，而中国人民银行连续第三天下调人民币参考利率，主因是ADB将发展中的亚洲地区在2013年度和2014年度的经济增长率预测值分别从6.6％下调至6.3％和从6.7％下调至6.4％。在韩国，韩国银行行长金要求财政支持，以便为美国的政策变化做好准备。

　　今天我们将知晓以下数据：欧元区6月欧盟27国新车注册量、意大利和欧元区5月贸易平衡、意大利5月公共政府债务、英国6月CPI、PPI以及RPI月率和年龄、德国7月ZEW现况指数调查以及经济景气指数调查、加拿大5月制造业销售数据、美国6月CPI月率和年率、美国5月累计净TIC流量和长期净TIC流量、美国6月工业生产和产能利用率、美国6月制造业生产和美国7月NAHB房屋市场指数（SIC）。

　　The currency markets were mostly range-bound overnight, with flows to AUD  and JPY. The RBA released the July 2nd meeting minutes; the recent AUD drop may  add inflation yet the inflation is expected to remain in the target range and  should provide some scope for further easing stated the minutes. RBA also  mentioned that AUD is still high and may fall further. AUDUSD rallied to 0.9195  post-minutes, while the offering interest remains solid at 0.9200/50 area.

　　Released yesterday, the US retail sales retreated in June while the markets  were looking for the opposite. USD, earlier in demand in NY, recorded a decent  unwind, reversing the downside trend in euro and sterling. EURUSD recovered from  1.2994 to 1.3096 through this morning. The weaker drop in EU 27 car  registrations helped the pair higher, while the Fitch downgrading EFSF to AA+  didn’t gather significant reaction (!). Due in the morning, the CPI numbers and  the ZEW surveys in Germany and Euro-zone are key data to watch for euro.

　　On a similar pattern, GBPUSD dropped to 1.5028 post US data, quickly  recovered above 1.5100 and spiked to 1.5143 in the European opening. The CPI  announcement in the morning is key. The markets expect an increase in inflation  from 2.7% to 3.0% in June. Any hike (above 2.7%) in inflation should weaken the  probability of QE expansion and give support to the GBP-consolidation over  1.5000, while any surprise on the downside should weigh on GBP.

　　In Japan, the eventless trading session saw USDJPY weakening below 100.00  level. Bids are seen at the 50-dayMA (99.54) on limited risk appetite ahead of  data-crowded trading day and Chairman Bernanke’s testimony scheduled  tomorrow.

　　In the emerging markets, the RBI raised the bank rate to halt the weakness  in rupee, PBOC lowered the yuan reference rate for third day as ADB revised the  developing Asia’s growth forecast from 6.6% to 6.3% in 2013 and from 6.7% to  6.4% through 2014. In Korea, BOK Governor Kim asked financial support to prepare  for the US policy change.

　　Ahead of us, the data-full agenda consists of Euro-Zone June EU27 New Car  Registrations, Italian and Euro-Zone May Trade Balance, Italian May General  Government Debt, UK June CPI, PPI and RPI m/m & y/y, German July ZEW Survey  on Current Situation and Economic Sentiment, Euro-Zone July ZEW Survey on  Economic Situation, Euro-Zone June CPI m/m & y/y, Canadian May Manufacturing  Sales m/m, US June CPI m/m & y/y, US May Total Net TIC Flows, Net Long-term  TIC Flows, US June Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, US June  Manufacturing (SIC) Production and US July NAHB Housing Market Index.