14/08/13@ 07:15 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20130814/xin-meiyuan

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　GBP:All eyes on the labour market data as unemployment is now an intermediate target of the Bank of England’s policy regime. Minutes to August policy meeting are also released at the same time, which will be scanned for the degree of unanimity on the latest changes to the policy regime.

　　EUR:The data today is expected to show an increase in Eurozone growth for the first time in seven quarters, with stronger than expected data from France today helping this belief and making it more likely that the expected 0.2% gain is surpassed.

　　英镑：所有人都在关注劳动市场数据，因为失业数据目前只是英格兰银行政策的一个中期目标。八月政策会议的内容也将在同一时间发布，这些内容将会被仔细研究以探究英格兰银行政策方面最新变化的一致程度。

　　欧元：今天的数据有可能显示出七个季度以来欧元区的增长出现第一次上升，今天法国的数据比预期要好也助长了这种想法，甚至有可能超过预期0.2%的上涨。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　So the pound has now turned into the dollar. From giving only half a glance last month, sterling will be all over the details of the labour market data today after the Bank of England put a 7% unemployment rate as an intermediate policy target, with lots of caveats and still retaining the 2% inflation target. As with the US, there are two measures, the claimant count (narrow measure of those claiming benefit) and the labour force survey (of households), from which the unemployment rate is derived. The rate (which is a 3-month average) is seen holding steady at 7.8% when released today where it has held for the previous 3 months. In theory, a lower figure should be sterling positive, on the notion that the first rise in interest rates could well come earlier than anticipated, but the reaction since last Wed’s announcement has already in part anticipated that, with sterling and market interest rates higher (which was probably not the reaction Carney was after). This could limit sterling upside today in this scenario.

　　目前英镑变成了美元一样。自从上个月稍微看了看，在英格兰银行将7%的失业率作为中期政策目标后，今天英镑全身心的在关注劳动市场数据的细节，而通胀目标还是维持在2%。美国方面，有两个数据，一是申请失业救济人数（狭义的申请人数），以及（家庭）劳动力调查数据，从这两个数据可以得出失业率。而今天发布的失业率（三个月均值）维持在7.8%，这也是过去三个月的水平。理论上，数据走低的话对于英镑是有利的，不过要注意利率首次上升将会比预期要更早，不过其反应自从上周三的公告以来已经部分完成这种预测，即英镑和市场利率走高（这可能不是Carney 所追求的）。今天这种情况可能会限制英镑的上行趋势。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　JPY:Stocks firmer again and this has helped USDJPY hold above the 98.00 level for most of the Asia session. But the yen continues to defy expectations of further structural weakness in the bigger picture, so has some work to do if it’s going to get back on a trend weakening course.

　　AUD:Steady tone to the Aussie overnight after recent losses back below the 0.91 area.

　　GBP:Sterling not always the best behaved currency and especially when liquidity is thinner in August and that was pretty evident during yesterday’s late European trade, when cable briefly nudged above the 1.55 level before pulling back to the 1.5440 level towards the close

　　日元：股票再次稳定，这也帮助了美元日元在亚洲盘口维持在了98.00之上。不过从大环境来看日元继续无视对进一步结构性疲软的预期，因此，如果日元要回到疲软的道路上去的话日元还有一些工作要做。

　　澳元：最近出现损失回到0.91以下之后，前一天澳元趋向稳定。

　　英镑：英镑一直都不是表现最好的货币，特别是八月流动性变少的时候，这在昨天欧洲盘口相当显著，而在收盘时回到1.5440以上之前，英镑美元小幅上升到1.55之上。

　　FX Alerts

　　FRENCH PRELIM GDP

　　法国的初步GDP

　　14/08/13@ 05:37 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130814/faguo-chubu-gdp

　　France posted better-than-expected economic growth of 0.5 percent in the second quarter, pulling out of a shallow recession.

　　法国发布的经济增长数据比预期要好，第二季度为0.5%，可以说从浅衰退中脱身出来了。

　　FX Alerts

　　STERLING HIGHER ON LABOUR DATA

　　劳动数据让英镑走高

　　14/08/13@ 08:33 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130814/laodong-shuju-rang-yingbang-zougao

　　GBP firmer after labour mkt data. All important rate steady at 7.8%, claimant count fall was more than expected. GBPUSD 30 pips higher to 1.5480. EURGBP 0.8564. Minutes showed one member voting against the use of forward guidance, steady on QE and rate vote.

　　劳动数据发布后英镑稳定。非常重要的失业率稳定在7.8%，申请失业救济人数的下降比预期要多。英镑美元走高了30个pip到了1.5480。欧元英镑为0.8564。会议内容显示出有一个成员投票反对使用先期指导，而是要坚持量化宽松以及利率投票。

　　FX Alerts

　　CABLE ABOVE 1.55 AFTER US PPI

　　美国PPI 发布后英镑美元上升到1.55以上

　　14/08/13@ 12:37 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130814/meiguo-ppi-fabu-zhizhou-meiyuan-shangsheng-dao-155-zhishang

　　USD weaker after US PPI flat on month (expected 0.3%). GBPUSD 20 pips higher to 1.5520, USDJPY 98.10, EURUSD at 1.3260.

　　这个月美国PPI 数据较为平稳（预期为0.3%），导致美元疲软。英镑美元上升20个pip到了1.5520，美元日元为98.10，欧元美元为1.3260。