Daily Forex Outlook

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140407/yixie-fengxian-weikou

　　What the Eurozone does about an inflation rate of 0.5% was not resolved last week after the ECB meeting, but we are likely to see the debate continue into this week, which is likely to keep the single currency on its toes. The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, heads over to Washington for the World Bank and IMF spring meetings, which is always a time for reflective debate and discussion of policy options for the future. The story of last week was that the ECB has been doing work in the area of asset purchases and how such a program would impact inflation. For the Eurozone, it is harder to achieve than for the US for example, with the Eurozone more reliant on the banking sector rather than capital markets for finance. On top of this, there is the issue of many diverse countries and a treaty that explicitly rules out the monetary financing of debt. Note that there are several ECB members scheduled to speak today, so this issue could well be discussed during the day.

　　Elsewhere, in the wake of the US employment report on Friday, we have seen the strong performance of emerging market FX continue, with the dollar bloc (CAD, AUD, NZD) also throwing in a strong performance. The Aussie itself finds itself just below the 0.93 level, having been the main surprise of the first quarter. CAD is trading one month highs vs. the dollar, whilst the kiwi is recovering after the weakness seen earlier last week. The bottom line is that the US labour market data on Friday put a sprinkling of risk appetite back into the market, even if equities don’t agree.

　　上周欧洲央行会议之后，欧元区面对通胀率0.5% 的所作所为还没有得到解决，但是讨论肯能会持续到这个星期。这种情况会让欧元变得小心一些。欧洲央行总裁Mario Draghi 将去华盛顿参加世界银行和IMF 的春季会议，这当然是辩论和讨论未来政策选项的好机会。上周的情况就是欧洲央行一直在做资产购买领域的工作，并且想知道像这样的项目会如何影响到通胀。对于欧元区来说，很难像美国那样成功，因为欧元区在金融方面更加依赖银行业而不是资本市场。而且，欧元区还有众多国家，以及一个明确约束债务货币融资的条约。要注意到欧洲央行一些成员今天将要发表讲话，因此这个问题在今天可能会讨论到。

　　其他地方，由于周五美国的就业报告，我们发现新兴外汇市场的强势在继续，而美元集团（加元，澳元和新元）也表现出强势。澳元仅仅只低于0.93 这个水平，这是因为第一季度带来的惊喜。加元针对美元达到一个月以来的高点，而新西兰元在上周出现疲软后目前在恢复之中。目前的状态就是周五美国的劳动市场数据会给市场带来一些风险胃口，即使股票方面不能显示出来。