Last week was for the euro and this week is likely to be for sterling to take centre stage. The issue for the BoE Inflation Report on Wednesday will be the extent to which the Bank continues with a policy of forward guidance in the face of what has been better data on the economy and signs of further buoyancy in the housing market. Things were complicated enough back in February when the Bank focused on a wider range of indicators in terms of framing its forward guidance policy. This time around, the question is whether it is down to the bank to cool things, or the Financial Policy Committee (FPC), who are tasked with using their powers to reign in lending should it believe there are risks of a bubble forming in the housing market. They don’t meet until mid-June, but they are likely to be increasingly in the spotlight in coming months. For sterling, any signs of the Bank backing down on forward guidance will be taken as positive, at least initially.

　　Ahead of that, today is likely to be a day of markets holding within recent ranges. The dollar has regained its poise in the past few sessions, although much of this has been against the weaker euro. The Aussie continues to look on good form, with the overnight release of business confidence data coming in firmer than expected and giving the Aussie some support at the margins. In emerging markets, both the South African rand and Indian rupee are in the spotlight after recent elections. No surprise with continuation of ANC in South Africa, but even with the currency at its strongest level this year, there are certainly challenges ahead for the economy. The Rupee is also firm as India’s election draws to a close and both reflect a stronger performance from emerging market currencies in general, helped by the weaker tone to the US dollar vs. expectations this year. Further gains though could struggle, given that the authorities could start to become concerned as to the domestic impact of the firmer currency. As always with emerging markets, it’s a matter of timing.

　　上一周属于欧元，而这一周英镑可能会走上舞台。英格兰银行周三通胀报告面临的问题也许会是，在经济数据变好而房屋市场兴旺的情况下，英格兰银行将把先期指导政策执行到何种程度。二月份的情况就已经很复杂了，当时英格兰关注了很多经济指标，为的是给自己的先期指导政策定一个框架。而这一次的问题是，是由英格兰银行解决问题；还是由金融政策委员会来（FPC）施展力量，如果FPC 认为房屋市场出现泡沫的话。他们的会议最早要六月中旬才召开，不过他们很可能在未来几个月都处于聚光灯下。对于英镑来说，如果英格兰银行有针对先期指导开始行动的迹象，都会是积极的，至少一开始会是。

　　今天市场有可能会稳定在最近的变动范围之内。美元在过去几个交易期内再次维持了稳定，尽管大部分这种变动都是针对欧元的。澳元继续表现良好，前一天发布的商业信息数据比预期要坚挺，让澳元或得了一些提振。新兴市场方面，南非兰特和印度卢比在选举过后都处于焦点位置。毫不意外南非的非国大（ANC）能够继续执政，不过，即使南非兰特处于今年最强势位置，其经济还是面临挑战。印度卢比也很坚挺，因为印度的选举临近。这两个货币的情况总体上体现了新兴市场货币表现强势的局面。原因之一就是今年美元相比预期较为疲软。尽管有些艰难，但可能会继续增长，因为其政府可能会担心货币坚挺而影响到国内经济。这就是新兴市场一贯的样子，只是一个时机选择的问题。

　　美元还有时间

　　The dollar finding some support into the end of the day, with the dollar index briefly back to 79.90. Gains more at the expense of the yen and the Aussie at present, but so far the moves have been narrow in the face of no major data releases or speakers. Retail sales data seen tomorrow will be of interest for the dollar tone, with data having fallen mostly to the firmer side of expectations recently. ZEW data is seen early on in the eurozone.

　　今天结束的时候美元获得了一些支持，美元指数回到了79.90。目前这种上涨更多是依赖于日元和澳元，但到目前为止变动有限，因为没有主要数据发布也没有发言人的讲话，明天的零售数据会让人感兴趣美元的走势，这些数据最近都比较坚挺。欧元区也将迎来ZEW 的数据。