刘尚欣：美联储12月利率决议声明全文

    自美联储联邦公开市场委员会十月以来收到信息表明，美国经济活动规模不断扩大，速度温和增长，家庭支出和企业固定投资一直在增加，最近几个月，房地产市场已进一步改善，净出口疲软。最近的劳动力市场指标，包括持续就业增长，失业率下降，确认进一步改善。劳动力资源利用不足已明显减少，通胀继续低于美联储长期2%目标，部分地反映了能源价格和非能源商品进口价格下降。通胀仍然很低，预期长期通胀率指标略微下降。

   根据法定职责，美联储旨在促进就业最大化和物价稳定。美联储预期，随着货币政策立场逐渐调整，经济活动将继续保持稳健步伐，劳动力市场指标符合预期，继续扩大与加强。总体而言，考虑到国际国内发展情况，委员会认为，经济活动和就业市场的风险已经平衡。随着能源和进口价格下降影响进一步减小，预期通胀率将上升至2%中期目标，劳动力市场进一步加强，委员会继续密切监控通胀发展情况。

  劳动力市场状况显著改善，今年，美联储有理由相信通胀将上升，中期达到2%目标。考虑到经济前景，以及对于政策行动需要时间才能对经济成果形成影响的认识，美联储委员会决定上调基金利率至0.25%到0.5%的区间。在此次加息后，货币立场仍保持宽松，从而为就业市场进一步改善和通胀上升至2%提供支持。

   在决定调整联邦利率时机和规模方面，委员会将评估就业最大化和通胀率2%的目标，以及相关的经济条件和已实现和预期进展。评估经济数据包括，劳动力市场数据、通胀指标和通胀预期，以及金融市场发展，国际市场等。鉴于目前仍未达到2%目标，美联储委员会密切注视通胀实际数据与预期进展。委员会预计，随着经济状况逐步提高，提高联邦基金利率，通胀率可能低于预期一段时间，长期加息路径仍取决于经济数据。

   委员会把所持机构债和抵押贷款支持证券的本金转到国债拍卖机构抵押贷款支持证券，预期这样做，一直到联邦利率达到正常水平。通过委员会持有相当大的长期证券，有助于维持宽松的金融环境。

   投票赞成美联储货币政策决议的FOMC委员包括:美联储主席耶伦、副主席杜德利、理事布雷纳德、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯、理事费舍尔、里奇蒙联储主席莱克、亚特兰大联储主席洛克哈特、理事鲍威尔、理事塔鲁洛、旧金山联储主席威廉姆斯。

  原文如下：

  Release Date: December 16, 2015

  For immediate release

    Information received since the Federal Open MarketCommittee met in October suggests that economic activity has beenexpanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixedinvestment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months,and the housing sector has improved further;

    however, net exportshave been soft. A range of recent labor market indicators,including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, showsfurther improvement and confirms that underutilization of laborresources has diminished appreciably since early this year.Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percentlonger-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy pricesand in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures ofinflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures oflonger-term inflation expectations have edged down.

    Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeksto foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committeecurrently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance ofmonetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at amoderate pace and labor market indicators will continue tostrengthen. Overall, taking into account domestic and internationaldevelopments, the Committee sees the risks to the outlook for botheconomic activity and the labor market as balanced. Inflation isexpected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as thetransitory effects of declines in energy and import pricesdissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committeecontinues to monitor inflation developments closely.

    The Committee judges that there has been considerableimprovement in labor market conditions this year, and it isreasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the mediumterm, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, andrecognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect futureeconomic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target rangefor the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance ofmonetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, therebysupporting further improvement in labor market conditions and areturn to 2 percent inflation.

    In determining the timing and size of future adjustmentsto the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee willassess realized and expected economic conditions relative to itsobjectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. Thisassessment will take into account a wide range of information,including measures of labor market conditions, indicators ofinflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings onfinancial and international developments. In light of the currentshortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefullymonitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. TheCommittee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a mannerthat will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate;the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, belowlevels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, theactual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economicoutlook as informed by incoming data.

    The Committee is maintaining its existing policy ofreinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt andagency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backedsecurities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities atauction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of thelevel of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, bykeeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities atsizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financialconditions.

    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L.Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard;Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P.Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C.Williams.

    Implementation Note issued December 16, 2015