01/08/13@ 07:30 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20130801/yanghang-fengbao

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　GBP:Going against normal convention, the Bank of England issued a statement after last month’s meeting and it’s probably safe to assume another one today. Volatility on sterling not likely to be as strong as last month, when reference was made to the fact that the market was wrong to start pricing in rate increases.

　　EUR:The big surprise last month was the fact that the ECB President said that rates were going “to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time”. This was a big break of the previous practise of not “pre-committing”, so the euro was understandably weaker as a result (by 2 big figures). Today’s meeting still brings volatility risks (see below).

　　USD:ISM data the main data focus, with the market looking for gain to 52.0 (from 50.9). Yesterday showed the extent to which the dollar is sensitive to data right now, although month end was no doubt exaggerating flows.

　　英镑：和普通的保守习惯相反，英格兰银行上个月会议之后发布了一个声明，而今天很可能也会有一个。英镑方面的波动不太可能比上月还有强，特别是提到市场对于利率增长出现误判的时候。

　　欧元：上个月令人感到非常吃惊的事情就是欧洲央行总裁说利率将“在一段时间内维持在现在的水平”。这显然和以前不作出“预先承诺”的习惯大不相同，结果就是欧元很配合的疲软（两个大数字）。今天的会议仍然会带来波动的风险（见下文）。

　　美元：ISM 数据是今天的主要焦点，市场期待这个数据能（从50.9）上升到52.0。昨天的情况显示出目前美元对数据敏感的程度，不过月末这个时间显然夸大了现金流的量度。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　A month ago, this day proved to be a very wild one for FX, with bombshells dropped from both the ECB and Bank of England after their rate meetings, even though both didn’t actually change policy. A timely illustration, if needed, of the power central bankers have on markets right now. Sterling moved by more than 1% and the euro by around 0.75% on the initial announcements designed to temper market expectations of future policy moving higher (especially for the UK). We’ve only seen more than a 1% range on cable on 4% of trading days over the past year. It’s unlikely we are going to get a repeat of the price volatility again today, but there are risks to both. On sterling, it’s that the new Governor chooses to reveal more of the Bank’s thinking on the economy and possible hint at more forward guidance (although this will officially be revealed later this month). For the ECB, it’s still worth noting that ECB decision days have on average seen 30% wider ranges than non-ECB days, so the potential for volatility remains, even despite last month’s ‘guidance’ from Draghi.

　　一个月前的这一天被证明是外汇市场相当狂野的一天，欧洲央行和英格兰银行在会议之后扔出了自己的炸弹，不过两者实际上都没有改变其政策。如果需要的话，目前央行对市场的能量得到了及时的证明。英镑的变动超过了1%而欧元方面的变动接近0.75%，这是在为了缓和市场对未来政策持续走高的预期（特别是对于英国）的初始公告发布之后。过去一年只有4%的交易日里英镑美元处在大约1%的交易范围内。而这样的波动今天不太可能再次发生了，不过两者都有风险。英镑方面，风险就是新总裁主动揭露了英格兰银行对于经济的更多思考并给出了更多远期指导（不过这个月将会以官方形式发布）。对于欧洲央行，值得注意的就是欧洲央行作出决定的日子里出现的交易范围比非决定日子里多出了30%，因此这种可能性仍会带来风险，即使上个月的“指导”是来自Draghi。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　USD:The FOMC meeting and subsequent statement did little to inspire a Dollar move. As largely expected the tone of the statement was slightly dovish with only minor changes in the wording. After the initial flurry the Dollar settled back nicely into the weeks range.

　　AUD:The Aussie was the biggest victim in the volatility that was month end on Wednesday, making new lows for the year at 0.8927. The market is now fully convinced that the RBA will cut rates again next week to 2.50%. EUR: The single currency has proven frustrating for those looking for a move lower, although plenty of offers have capped the upside just below the 1.33 level.

　　JPY:The yen weakness story is holding less water at the moment. The yen crosses saw GBPJPY at 6 week lows yesterday (148.30 low), whilst EURJPY is still grappling for a break below the 130 level on a sustained basis, which remains the key focus for now.

　　美元：联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的会议以及随后的声明基本上没有让美元出现变动。正如大家所预期的，其声明的调子比较温和，在措辞方面变动很少。一开始的慌张过后美元又回到这几周的交易范围之内。

　　澳元：澳元是周三也就是月末的波动中最大的受害者，达到了年度新低0.8927。市场现在完全相信澳洲联储会在下周再次降息2.50%。

　　欧元：对于那些期待走低的人来说欧元真是很烦人，不过大量卖出行为已经在1.33阻止了其上行趋势。

　　日元：目前日元的疲软波澜不惊。日元交叉盘方面，昨天英镑日元处于六周以来的低点（低至148.30）而同时欧元日元仍在挣扎着期待稳定突破到130之下，这也是目前的关键点所在。

　　FX Alerts

　　CNY MANUFACTURING PMI

　　中国制造业PMI

　　01/08/13@ 01:02 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130801/zhongguo-zhizaoye-pmi

　　China July Manufacturing PMI at 50.3

　　中国七月的制造业PMI 为50.3。

　　FX Alerts

　　BOE INTEREST RATE

　　英格兰银行利率

　　01/08/13@ 11:03 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130801/yinggelan-yinhang-lilv

　　Bank of England keeps the APF unchanged at GBP 375bln as expected. Also Bank of England keeps interest rates unchanged at 0.50% as expected.

　　和预期一致，英格兰银行没有改变资产购买计划，仍然为3750亿英镑。同时英格兰银行也没有改变利率，仍然是0.50%，和预期一致。

　　FX Alerts

　　US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS

　　美国首次申请失业救济人数

　　01/08/13@ 12:36 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130801/meiguo-shouci-shenqing-shiyejiuji-renshu

　　US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 27) W/W 326k vs. Exp. 345k (Prev. 343k)

　　US Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 20) W/W 2951K vs. Exp. 3000K (Prev. 2997K, Rev. 3003K)

　　美国首次申请失业救济人数（7月27日）周环比32万6千，预期为34万5千（此前为34万3千）。

　　美国持续申请失业救济人数（7月20日）周环比295万1千，预期为300万（此前为299万7千，后修正为300万3千）。

　　FX Alerts

　　ECB PRESS CONFERENCE

　　欧洲央行新闻发布会

　　01/08/13@ 12:42 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130801/ouzhouyanghang-xinwen-fabuhui

　　ECB's Draghi says ECB expects key interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for extended period of time.Euro-area growth risks remain on the downside.

　　欧洲央行总裁Draghi 说欧洲央行期待主要利率能在一段时间内维持在现在的水平或者更低的水平。欧元方面的增长风险仍然处于下行。

　　FX Alerts

　　US ISM MANUFACTURING

　　美国ISM 制造业数据

　　01/08/13@ 14:03 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130801/meiguo-ism-zhizaoye-shuju

　　US ISM Manufacturing (Jul) M/M 55.4 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 50.9)

　　- Prices Paid 49.0 vs. Exp. 53.8 (Prev. 52.5)

　　- Employment 54.4 vs. Exp. 50 (Prev. 48.7)

　　- New Orders 58.3 (Prev. 51.9)

　　US Construction Spending (Jun) M/M -0.6% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 1.3%)

　　美国的ISM 制造业数据（七月）月环比55.4，而预期是52.0（此前为50.9）

　　－支付价格49.0，预期为53.8（此前为52.5）

　　－就业54.4，预期为50（此前为48.7）

　　－新订单58.3（此前为51.9）

　　美国营建支出（七月）月环比-0.6%，而预期是0.4%（此前为0.5%，修正到1.3%）