正如市场广泛预期，澳洲联储将现金利率下降25个基点至2.50%，让那些预期或将降息50个基点的人士失望。澳洲联储也并未提及会在8月8日会议上进一步降息，为此澳元兑其所有主要对手货币均有所上扬。尽管澳元走软并未有助于抑制澳元强势，但市场还是重复表示澳洲联储可能会进一步削弱澳元以刺激经济增长（目前低于趋势），并预计通胀率在接下来的两年时间内依然位于目标区间之内。澳元兑美元向0.8990恢复；买盘见于0.9000（心理水平），但我们预计反弹可能会因市场的失望情绪继续延长。由于市场越来越预期新西兰央行未来12个月内会加息（据路透社报道，将加息69个基点），澳元兑纽元依然是最安全的投注货币对。

　　美元兑日元和日元交叉盘在东京市场先是遭遇抛售，之后伴随着日经股市上涨以及澳元兑日元涨幅超过一个大数而上扬。美元兑日元的关键支撑位分别为97.76（昨日的云底）和97.55；止损盘在97.50下方建立。

　　在美国，强劲的ISM数据昨日温和提振美元牛市。隔夜，欧元兑美元先是下跌至1.3233，之后在区间1.3270-75内震荡。突破1.3300屡战屡败让趋势势头有所减弱，但1.3200以上的投标买入价依然稳固。

　　至于英镑，不断走强的牛市在纽约市场中对美元反弹的反应比较有限。如果上午即将释放的工业和制造业数据与积极的市场预估值一致，则英镑兑美元已准备测试阻力位区间1.5400-10。

　　在其他地方，印度卢比兑美元创记录新低61.33，而土耳其7月CPI同比增长8.88％，让市场不断增加对价格通胀风险具体化的担忧。美元兑土耳其里拉目前报价1.9300。

　　今天的重点是意大利6月工业生产月率和年率、英国6月工业生产和制造业生产、意大利第二季度（初步值）GDP WDA季率、德国6月工厂订单月率和年率、加拿大6月国际商品贸易、美国6月贸易收支、英国7月NIESR GDP预估值、美国8月IBD/TIPP经济乐观指数以及美国6月JOLT报告（职位空缺数）。

　　As widely expected, RBA cut the cash rate by 25 bps to 2.50% and disappointed those betting for 50 bps cut. No further rate cut was mentioned either in August 6th meeting; the Aussie gained against all of its major counterparts. The repeated comments on AUD to fall further to bolster the growth (which is below the trend), nor the inflation expected to remain in the target range over the next two years despite weaker AUD didn’t help to curb the Aussie strength. AUDUSD recovered towards 0.8990; offers are seen at 0.9000 – psychological level, yet we expect the rally to extend on market disappointment. AUDNZD remains the safest bet with rising probability for RBNZ rate hike (worth 69 bps according to Reuters) in the next 12 months.

　　USDJPY and JPY crosses were first sold in Tokyo, and then became better bid alongside with the pick-up in Nikkei stocks and more than a figure hike in AUDJPY. Key supports in USDJPY stand at 97.76 (yesterday cloud base) then at 97.55; stops are building below 97.50.

　　In US, the strong ISM reading gave a timid boost to USD-bulls yesterday. EURUSD traded down to 1.3233, and remained offered at 1.3270/75 zone overnight. The repeated failures to break above 1.3300 weakened the trend momentum, yet bids are still solid above 1.3200.

　　Looking at the cable, the strengthening bull market gave limited reaction to USD-rally in New York. The pair is ready to test the 1.5400/10 resistance should the industrial and manufacturing data meet the optimistic market estimates in the morning.

　　Else, the Indian rupee weakened to a record low of 61.33 per dollar, while the Turkey CPI advanced to 8.88% y-o-y in July, rising concerns on concretizing risk in price inflation. USDTRY is currently bid at 1.9300.

　　Today, the focus is on the Italian June Industrial Production m/m & y/y, UK June Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Italian 2Q (Prelim) GDP WDA q/q, German June Factory Orders m/m & y/y, Canadian June International Merchandise Trade, US June Trade Balance, UK July NIESR GDP Estimate, US August IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and US June JOLTs Job Openings.