11/03/14 @ 08:13 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20140311/zhichi-ouyuan

　　The euro is coming under some pressure early on during the European trading session, but this follows from what has been a relatively strong performance, which saw EURUSD push more than 2 year highs at the end of last week. There have been two principle drivers to this move. Firstly, the ECB last week gave no strong indications that further easing was on the cards at their monthly press conference. Secondly, the depreciation of the Chinese yuan has seen the euro benefit on the perception that the central bank is shifting reserves away from the dollar. Now, we cannot know this for certain, because the PBOC don’t publish data on reserves to that level of detail. But other signs, such as large reduction of US government bond holdings by China in the latest official US data, suggest something along these lines is taking place. There have been other periods when the euro has benefited from such reserve diversification moves. Being the second most liquid currency after the dollar, it is not that surprising to see the euro benefit and if China continues to push its currency lower, this could easily provide further support for the single currency.

　　Besides the euro, the overnight session has been relatively muted. We’ve see the Aussie regain its balance from an earlier wobble on weaker than expected business confidence data and there were no surprises from the latest Bank of Japan meeting, where the current pace of QE was kept in place ahead of the consumption tax increase next month which is expected to see growth correct lower. USDJPY remains pretty range bound, but taking into account the above, EURJPY is looking far more interesting, with potential to move back to the year-end highs just above 145.00 should the current drivers of euro strength remain in play.

　　欧洲盘早期欧元受到一些压力，不过这是发生在一段相对强势的表现之后，期间欧元美元在上周末曾达到两年以来的高点。这次变化有两个主要因素在驱动。首先，上周的月度新闻发布会上欧洲央行并没有强烈表示出要进一步实行宽松计划。其次，人民币的贬值让欧元得到好处，因为中国的央行正减少美元储备。现在，我们不能确切得知详情，因为中国人民银行（PBOC）没有发布其美元储备的详细信息。不过其他迹象，例如美国官方最新数据显示中国大幅度减持美国政府债券，预示着其中出现了某些情况。以前也曾发生过欧元因为类似的储备分化变动而获利的情况，欧元得到好处并不让人吃惊。如果中国继续压低其货币，会让欧元进一步获得支持。

　　除开欧元，前一天的交易相对沉闷。我们发现，由于商业信心数据疲软，再加上日本央行最新的会议没有什么让人吃惊的消息，这种情况造成的波动让澳元再次获得平衡。日本银行的会议没有改变当前量化宽松的步伐，而下个月的消费税加税则有可能降低幅度。美元日元仍然维持其范围，不过考虑以上的陈述，欧元日元则要有趣得多，如果目前驱动欧元保持强势得因素维持下去，这个货币对有可能回到去年底的高点，要高于145.00 这个水平。

　　FX Alerts

　　AUD NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

　　澳洲NAB 商业信心数据

　　11/03/14 @ 00:38 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140311/aodaliya-nab-shangye-xinxin

　　Australian NAB Business Confidence for February at +7 vs +8 forecast.

　　二月澳大利亚NAB 商业信心数据为＋7，而预测是＋8。

　　FX Alerts

　　BOJ MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT

　　日本银行货币政策声明

　　11/03/14 @ 03:12 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140311/ribenyinhang-huobi-zhengce-shengming

　　Bank Of Japan retains plan for 60T-70T yen annual rise in monetary base. Will continue easing until 2% inflation is stable and proceed with policy adjustments as needed.

　　日本银行维持了其60 万亿－70 万亿日元货币基数的年度上涨计划。他们可能会继续实行宽松，知道2% 的通胀稳定下来，然后在需要的时候继续其政策调整。

　　FX Alerts

　　GBP FIRMER AFTER DATA…

　　数据发布后英镑坚挺……

　　11/03/14 @ 09:35 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140311/shuju-fabu-zhihou-yingbang-jianting

　　GBP slightly firmer after UK industrial production data, headline rising 0.4%, with prior month revised higher. Cable 1.6630. EURGBP 0.8332.

　　英国工业生产数据发布，整体上升了0.4%，而上个月的数据则被调高，英镑因此而小幅坚挺。英镑美元为1.6630。欧元英镑为0.8332。