27/03/14 @ 08:56 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20140327/ruishifalang-piruan

　　There is a sense that FX markets are coasting into year end, with one or two exceptions. The Aussie we talked about yesterday, with reference to its ability to defy gravity in the face of the greater nervousness surrounding China. But the Swissie is also worth noting as we move into quarter end. We’ve seen around a 0.7% reversal in EURCHF from the lows seen in the middle of March around the 1.2120 area, now nudging above 1.22. Naturally, some of the uncertainties surrounding the Ukraine and less so China have had an impact, but the SNB’s continued pledge to defend the 1.20 level, repeated by the SNB President a week ago, have served to make the yen the preferred safe haven during the second half of March.

　　For today, the final reading on US Q4 GDP and UK retail sales will be the main distractions, together with the usual weekly claims data in the US. The dollar is receiving a modest bid at the start of the European session, mostly at the expense of the euro and the yen. Banks try their best to anticipate the effect of month end flows on currency movements as asset managers adjust hedges to compensate for monthly asset market performance. There has been some talk that this will be positive for the yen going into month end, with the euro weaker on the back of the strong performance of a strong performance from Eurozone bonds. Overall though, the message is beware of greater volatility Friday and Monday.

　　我们有一种感觉就是外汇市场是滑行到年末的，只有一两个例外。昨天我们谈到了澳元，由于针对中国的紧张情绪在高涨，似乎澳元有了一种抵抗重力的能力。不过季度末这个时间段内瑞士法郎也值得注意。我们发现欧元瑞士法郎比三月中旬的低点1.2120 这个区域上涨了将近0.7% ，现在已经高于1.22。很自然，围绕乌克兰的迷雾以及中国的情况产生了影响，不过瑞士央行已经再次誓言要保卫1.20 这个水平，这是瑞士央行总裁一星期之前重申的。这种情况让日元在三月下半段成为更加受欢迎的避险货币。

　　今天，美国第四季度GDP 最终数据以及英国的零售数据会是最让人分心的东西，此外还有美国的每周失业申请救济数据。欧洲盘开盘时美元出现温和的买入趋势，主要受害者则是欧元和日元。众多银行都在尽最大努力预测月末现金流对货币走势的影响，因为资产管理者在调整对冲以补偿资产市场的月度表现。有传言说这种局面对于月末的日元有好处，而欧元则由于欧元区债券走强而疲软。总之，我们要传达的信息就是要提防周五以及下周一出现大的波动。

　　FX Alerts

　　UK RETAIL SALES (MOM)

　　英国零售数据（月环比）

　　27/03/14 @ 09:33 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140327/yingguo-lingshou-yuehuanbi

　　UK Retail Sales for February rise 1.7% vs 0.5% forecast.

　　英国二月份零售数据上升了1.7%，预测是0.5%。

　　FX Alerts

　　US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS

　　美国首次申请失业救济数据

　　27/03/14 @ 12:38 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140327/meiguo-chuci-shenqing-shiyejiuji-shuju

　　Initial Jobless Claims fell at 311K vs 325K forecast, lowest level since end of November.

　　首次申请失业救济数字下跌到了31 万1 千，预测是32 万5 千，这是自去年十一月末以来的最低水平。

　　FX Alerts

　　US PENDING HOME SALES (MOM)

　　美国未决房屋销售（月环比）

　　27/03/14 @ 14:04 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140327/meiguo-weijue-fangwu-xiaoshou-yuehuanbi

　　US Pending Home Sales missed expectations of 0.3% rise in February and drop by 0.8%.

　　美国二月份未决房屋销售下降了0.8%，而不是预期的上涨0.3%。