In a world of low FX volatility on the majors, the interesting move through this week has been Aussie/Kiwi, with a further reversal seen overnight on the back of the latest rate decision and statement from the RBNZ. The move higher in the key rate to 3% was largely expected; the relatively hawkish tone to the accompanying statement was less anticipated. The Bank stated that inflationary pressures are increasing “and are expected to continue doing so over the next two years”. The statement as a whole suggests at least one more rate hike is on the horizon, but the bank also stated that they do not believe that the current level of the exchange rate is sustainable and removed the phrase “in the long-run”from the end of this statement between the March and April meetings. This could be taken as a sign that they are getting a little more uncomfortable with the level of the exchange rate, which is up 1% since the last meeting and up 0.35% after the rate decision overnight. Note that AUD/NZD has moved more than 1% lower, helped by the weaker tone to the Aussie after the latest inflation numbers this week.

　　For today, main focus for the market will be the German IFO confidence data this morning, where headline reading is seen heading down a little from 110.7, but note that the key measure of German business confidence remains near a 3 year high. Bigger focus in the Eurozone and for the single currency is deflation risks and the ECB’s potential reaction to them, which will be a growing focus into the next ECB meeting in two week’s time.

　　在主要货币没有出现太大波动的局面下，这一周令人感兴趣的变化就是澳元／新元。由于新西兰央行最新发布的声明和利率决定，这两个货币出现了进一步的逆转。关键利率上升到3% 是非常有可能的；不过声明中那种相对强硬的语气倒是让人没有想到。新西兰央行说通胀压力在增加，而且“未来两年内可能会继续下去”。声明从整体上预见未来可能还会有一次加息，不过他们还说不相信当前的汇率水平可以持续下去，并且在三月和四月会议的声明中去掉了“长期”这样的措辞。这种情况可以视为一种信号，就是他们不太满意当前的利率水平，因为自从上次会议以来汇率已经上升了1%；而前一天利率决定出来后又上升了0.35%。要注意澳元／新元已经下降了超过1%，原因就是这周通胀数据发布后澳元出现了疲软局面。

　　今天主要的焦点就是今天上午德国的IFO 信心数据，数据整体上从110.7 下降了一些，不过要注意的是德国商业信心的关键测量数据仍然是三年以来的高点。欧元区和欧元方面比较令人关注的就是通缩风险。而欧洲央行会如何应对则会是两周以后欧洲央行会议上更加令人关注的焦点。

　　EUR little changed on stronger IFO

　　IFO 走强欧元不为所动

　　by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　April 24, 2014 @ 8:06 UTC

　　Market Snapshots

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140424/ifo-zouqiang-ouyuan-buweisuodong

　　The German IFO survey was stronger than expected at 111.2 (expected 110.4) but the single currency has shown only a limited reaction, slowly nudging to the 1.3840 level. The lack of reaction reflects the fact that the focus for the market is much more on the prices side and the risks prices falling further, which will be where the ECB focus is at next month’s policy meeting.

　　德国IFO 调查数据超出预期，为111.2（预期是110.4），不过欧元不为所动，且反应有限，只是缓慢的运动到了1.3840 这个水平。欧元缺乏反应显示出一个事实，就是目前市场的焦点更多在价格以及风险价格降低的风险这两个方面，这也是下个月欧洲央行政策会议的焦点。