Looking at the net change of the dollar index, the dollar seems to be just about holding its head above water so far this year. Yesterday’s further downward revision to US GDP for the first quarter was a further blow to the notion that differing policy cycles would provide support through most of 2014. From here, it’s a case of the durability of the recovery from the Q1 weakness, but also the extent to which the dollar is able to stand apart from the crowd. Against the euro, that’s still possible given the easing put in place by the ECB earlier this month. Against sterling it’s going to be harder, given the indication from the BoE that the first tightening move may come earlier than previously thought.

　　只看美元指数的净变化，今年到目前为止美元似乎刚刚能够求生。昨天美国第一季度GDP 继续修改下调再次打击了以下这个见解，即2014 年大部分时间内不同的政策周期能够提供某种支持。从此处来看，这种情况意味着第一季度疲软恢复的持久性，不过也意味着美元鹤立鸡群的高度。针对欧元似乎是可以做到的，理由就是欧洲央行这个月初出台的宽松计划。

　　On sterling, we could get a better steer on this today, with the release of the results of last week’s financial policy committee meeting. Before the financial crisis, the central bank was pretty toothless when it came to financial stability issues. Since then, new powers are designed to rein back financial excesses before they impact the economy. There are thoughts this could well happen today, with some restriction on mortgage lending or possibly capital requirements against it. If seen, these could well soften the currency, on the basis that such measures would be seen as making an interest rate increase less likely. Details are expected to be announced around 09:30 GMT.

　　英镑方面，今天我们有了更好的方向。因为上周金融政策委员会的会议结果发布了。金融危机之前，碰到金融稳定性的问题时，央行基本上是无害的。但从那个时候开始，央行有了新的力量可以在金融过度影响到经济之前将其拉回。有人认为目前就会发生这种情况，比如对抵押借贷进行一些限制或者利用资本需求来反制之。如果出现这种情况，货币就会被软化，理由就是这样的措施会导致利率不会过快上升。细节将在格林尼治时间9 点30 揭晓。

　　Overall, FX has been steady overnight, but cable has nudged upwards the 1.70 level again, with the Aussie also finding some support above the 0.94 area. US claims data the main focus later on, together with income and spending data, but no major changes on the dollar tone anticipated.

　　总之，昨天外汇方面比较稳定，但是英镑美元再次小幅上升到了1.70，而澳元也在0.94 区域得到了一些支撑。美国的失业救济申请数据是随后的焦点，此外还有收入和消费数据，不过美元的局面预期不会有大的改变。

　　英镑在等待FPC

　　Sterling just below the 1.70 level on cable ahead of announcement by the Financial Policy Committee. There is expectation that they will announce some measures to take the heat out of the housing market. Any measures on this front could well curtail further sterling strength on the basis that they will make an interest rate before the year end less likely, but this may not be sustained given that Carney has previously stressed that such measures were not a substitute for higher rates (Mansion House speech). The Aussie also feeling a little more assured this morning, holding above the 0.94 level for the moment.

　　金融政策委员会（FPC）的声明发布之前，英镑美元方面，英镑现在仅仅低于1.70。有人预期FPC 会宣布一些措施以冷却房屋市场。如果真有此方面的措施出台，将会进一步遏制英镑的强势，理由就是FPC 不太可能在年底之前在利率方面有所动作；不过这种情况也许无法持续，因为Carney 此前曾强调过这样的措施无法替代加息（在Mansion House 的发言中提到）。今天上午澳元也感到了一丝放松，目前位于0.94 之上。