Investors are getting nervous and there are a number of good reasons to be so with yesterday’s shock fall in US retail sales being one of them.A major gauge of investor concern,the Vix index,hit a near three year high yesterday.Across the board economists and analysts are re-evaluating not only their growth forecasts(many pre-empted by the IMF’s revisions last week),but their inflation forecasts and as a result their interest rate hike expectations which are being pushed further and further back.Then there’re crude prices,a good gauge of investor sentiment towards global growth prospects,which continued their plunge lower yesterday.At the moment there are many arrows pointing to the exit but for today at least there seems to be a degree of sanity amongst the chaos as European indices are bouncing strongly this morning.　　
投资者正变得紧张，而昨天美国零售数据的突然下跌让他们有理由如此。VIX指数作为衡量投资者担忧的一个数据，昨天达到三年以来的高点。经济学家和分析人士正在全面重新评估的不仅有他们的增长预测（许多被上周IMF对数据的修改所打断），还有通胀预测；最后他们对加息的预期也受到影响，被一次又一次的推后了。此外，原油价格在全球增长背景下是针对投资者情绪很好的衡量标准，昨天也继续走低。此时此刻，退出的标记无所不在，不过在这种混乱之中欧洲的指数今天上午迎来强势上升，似乎是一线曙光。　　

For FX markets the dollar rally is being significantly tested.The recent data simply hasn’t done enough to warrant a continuation of dollar strength and with US government bond yields plummeting it’s going to take some really good economic numbers to turn sentiment around.Today US industrial production and the Phili Fed might be able to lend a hand,but before then focus will be on Eurozone CPI with the year on year figure due to decline from 0.4%to 0.3%.Considering that so far this week inflation data from the UK and Eurozone has done nothing other than surprise to the downside,we shouldn’t expect any shocks to the upside.　　

对于外汇市场，美元的反弹正在受到很大的考验。最近的数据根本就不能够保证美元强势的持续，而美国政府债券收益在上升，因此我们需要非常好的数据才能扭转这种弥漫的情绪。今天，美国的工业生产数据和费城制造业指数也许能够帮一把手，不过在此之前我们的焦点还是在欧元区的CPI上，其同比数据也许会从0.4%下降到0.3%。考虑到这周到目前为止英国和欧元区的通胀数据除了下跌还是下跌，上行基本是不可能出现了。