What FX markets strive for is divergence on the policy path of the underlying currencies. There was the thought that this was coming earlier this year, with the Fed tapering, the ECB potentially easing and the UK keeping rates low via forward guidance. In a near zero rate world, combined with unconventional monetary policy measures, the impact of this is often not dramatic and as expected, which is one reason why the dollar has not behaved as expected and FX volatility has declined. There are fresh signs that things are changing though, which yesterday could be seen on EURGBP. The minutes to the latest MPC meeting in the UK suggested that the Bank of England is getting closer to seeing at least one member of the committee voting for higher rates. This pushed the cross below the 0.8100 level, not seen since November of last year. There was also more talk of exit strategy in the Fed minutes last night, although there were also concerns regarding the housing market and the dollar was little changed. We wrote yesterday about the need for central banks to start preparing markets for higher rates at some point (see “Killing forward guidance”).

　　For today, we are seeing some mixed messages around. PMI data in China (HSBC measure) was better than expected, which offered some interim support for the Aussie. Preliminary data in Eurozone has seen France weaker than expected (both manufacturing and services below the 50.0 level), whilst data for Germany showed a more mixed message, with manufacturing weaker at 52.9 and services 56.4 (expected 54.5). The euro has recovered from the early lows, but the focus remains on the ECB meeting next month, where the scope for some more stimulatory measures remains strong. More UK data seen today (more details on Q1 GDP), with US claims and home sales data later on.

　　外汇市场所努力争取的是相关货币的政策路径出现分化。曾经有人认为今年年初这种情况就会随着美联储的紧缩政策、欧洲央行的宽松政策以及英国通过先期指导维持低利率这三者的实行而出现。目前的情况是利率接近于零，而货币政策也是非保守的，两者造成的影响通过不会太过戏剧性，也不会让人如愿。这也是美元没有如期表现而外汇市场波动没有消退的一个原因。目前有迹象显示情况正在改变；昨天的欧元英镑就所有体现。英国货币政策委员会（MPC）最新会议内容显示，英格兰银行至少有一个委员会成员投票赞同加息。这种情况将交叉盘拉低到了0.8100 之下，这是从去年十一月以来所不曾见到的。昨天晚上美联储的会议上还更多地谈到了退出策略，尽管人们也曾担心房屋市场；而美元则不为所动。昨天我们的博客分析了众多央行正在让市场准备好迎接高利率的来到（见博文《杀死先期指导》）。

　　今天，我们发现了一些令人疑惑的信息。中国的PMI 数据（香港汇丰测算）比预期要好，这给澳元提供了临时的支持。欧元区的初步数据方面，法国数据比预期要疲软（制造业和服务业数据都低于50.0 这个水平），而德国的数据则更加让人迷惑，其制造业数据疲软，为52.9；而服务业数据为56.4（预期是54.5）。欧元从早先的低点恢复过来，不过大众的焦点还是下个月欧洲央行的会议。这个会议留给更多刺激措施的空间还是很多的。今天还发布了更多的英国数据（关于第一季度GDP 的更多细节），而美国的申请救济数据和房屋数据都要随后发布。

　　GDP 发布后英镑下降

　　The second reading of UK GDP data showing unchanged 0.8% gain in the first quarter. Private consumption was up 0.9% after a weak final quarter of last year (up 0.4%). Sterling was creeping higher ahead of the numbers, above 1.69 on cable, but has since scaled back down to the 1.6880 area. Overall though, after yesterday’s MPC minutes, the tone to sterling is better as the interest rate debate looks set to hot up and become a lot more balanced.

　　英国第二次发布的GDP 数据显示出第一季度的上涨没有改变，仍然为0.8%。私人消费领域自从去年最后一季度出现疲软后（上涨了0.4%），今年第一季度则上涨了0.9%。数据发布之前英镑在缓慢走高，英镑美元到了1.69 之上，不过随后又回到了1.6880 这个区域。总之，昨天货币政策委员会的会议内容发布之后，英镑的情况变好了，因为利率方面的讨论变得更加热烈，也更加平衡了。