06/03/14 @ 08:14 GMT by Angus Campbell, Senior Analyst

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20140306/ouyuanqu-qingxu-gaishan-kunrao-ecb-jueyi

　　The dollar has been steadily recouping some ground overnight in particular against the Yen as USDJPY gets itself back to the 102.75 level and could have the impetus behind it to test 103.00 again, not seen since January. The normalisation of markets since the beginning of the week has been stark so today investors can focus on one of the major risk events that traders have been building up to for quite some time now and that’s the ECB meeting later today. Safe to say the BOE meeting is not considered such a risk so the focus will be on the Euro rather than sterling.

　　The turnaround in sentiment towards the Eurozone has caught the majority by surprise. A year ago few would have thought that the yields on 10 year bonds for Portugal would today be below 5%, Spain below 4% and Italy less than 3.5%. Italy is a case in point as yesterday it saw its services PMI jump from 49.4 to back above the 50.0 to 52.9 indicating expansion and the data for the Eurozone as a whole was higher than expected. So as sentiment has improved the single currency has remained well supported despite many in the market thinking that today it is time for the ECB to ease further. But the most recent data would suggest otherwise, with last week’s flash CPI number coming in higher than expected, a key measure for the ECB, so little or no action could lead to a volatile period immediately following the decision at 12.45 GMT. All eyes will be on the refi rate to see if that’s cut, but any impact of such a move is likely to be very limited and so the likelihood of a refi rate reduction is slim.

　　前一天美元一直在稳定的弥补损失，特别是针对日元，而美元日元回到了102.75 并且有可能再次冲刺103.00，这是一月以来不曾见过的。这一周开始市场开始正常化，然而这种正常化却停滞下来，因此今天投资者可以关注主要风险事件之一，也就是交易者们很长时间以来在等待的今天晚些时候举行的欧洲央行会议。我们可以很安全的说英格兰银行的会议不是风险，因此关注的焦点会是欧元而不是英镑。

　　欧元区情绪的转变让大家很吃惊。一年之前没有多少人认为葡萄牙10 年期债券的收益今天会低于5%，西班牙的会低于4% 而意大利的会低于3.5%。意大利值得一提，昨天意大利的服务业PMI 从49.4 回到50.0 之上到了52.9，这显示出一种扩张；而欧元区数据整体上也比预期要好。因此随着情绪的改善，欧元仍然得到好的支持，不过市场中许多人认为今天欧洲央行可能会实行进一步宽松措施。但是最新的数据则显示出相反的局面，上一周的CPI 预测数据比预期要高，这个数据对于欧洲央行来说是一个关键测算手段，因此也许格林尼治时间12 点45 分的决议之后不会有变动。所有人都在关注再融资利率，要看看这个数据是否被降低，不过如果发生这种变动，其影响会非常有限。因此，再融资利率降低的可能性非常小。

　　FX Alerts

　　AUSTRALIAN RETAIL SALES

　　澳洲零售

　　06/03/14 @ 01:05 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140306/aozhou-lingshou

　　AUDUSD up 50 pips after better than expected Australian Retail Sales Data. Currently AUDUSD 0.9023

　　澳大利亚零售数据比预期要好，随后澳元美元上升了50 点。目前澳元美元位于0.9023。

　　FX Alerts

　　GBP ASSET PURCHASE FACILITY & OFFICIAL BANK RATE UNCHANGED

　　英国资产收购融资和官方银行利率未改变

　　06/03/14 @ 12:23 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140306/yingguo-zichan-shougou-rongzi-he-guanfang-yinhang-lilv-wei-gaibian

　　GBP Asset Purchase Facility & Official Bank Rate unchanged at 375B and 0.50% respectively;

　　GBPUSD trading at 1.6710;

　　EURGBP trading at 0.8226;

　　英镑资产收购融资和官方银行利率没有改变，分别为3750 亿和0.50%。

　　英镑美元位于1.6710；

　　欧元英镑位于0.8226；

　　FX Alerts

　　ECB LEAVES KEY RATES UNCHANGED

　　欧洲央行关键利率未改变

　　06/03/14 @ 12:51 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140306/ecb-guanjian-lilv-wei-gaibian

　　ECB leaves key rates unchanged. After initial volatility, euro little changed to slightly firmer by 10 pips on EURUSD to 1.3760. EURJPY 141.40.

　　欧洲央行关键利率未改变。起初的波动之后，欧元没什么变化，只是小幅上升了10 点；欧元美元到了1.3760。欧元日元位于141.40。