In terms of overnight trading, it’s the Aussie that has caught the attention, with a push just shy of the 0.93 level on AUDUSD helped by data on private capital expenditure, with the move more triggered by the move towards 1.0950 on AUDNZD after the break above the previous high of 1.0912 which was offering pretty stiff resistance. If we break above the 1.0950, then AUDNZD will be pushing levels last seen the middle of December. Once again, the Aussie is pushing against developments in China which from some angles should be arguing for a weaker currency.

　　The other interesting currency, even though if not in the price action overnight, is sterling. The minutes to the latest MPC meeting last week showed that some members of the MPC were seeing the rate decision as being more finely balanced. There is an interview with one of them in the FT today (Martin Weale), who is one of these members. Although he argues that it is not so urgent that it needs doing now, but says that we can wait a bit longer, without defining longer. In summary, we are likely to see some members voting for a rate hike in the coming 2-3 months, something which is likely to be reflected in the currency at some point as well over that time.

　　For today, several European markets are shut for the Ascension day holiday, which will likely keep trading ranges tight. Watch for US GDP data later in the day, with expectations for this to be revised into negative territory for the first quarter, after the mere 0.1% annualised growth seen on the first estimate. The dollar will naturally be disappointed with anything weaker than the -0.5% expectation.

　　从昨天的交易来看，是澳元抓住了大家的注意力。澳元美元几乎冲到了0.93 这个水平，其中私人资本支出功不可没，而澳元新元突破此前具有强大阻力的高点1.0912 后冲击1.0950 则是更直接的原因。如果能突破到1.0950 之上，那么澳元新元将要突破去年十二月以来所不曾见的水平。而且，澳元与中国目前的情况背道而驰，后者从某些角度来看只能导致货币疲软。

　　另一个令人感兴趣的货币就是英镑，尽管昨晚的价格变动种并没有其身影出现。上周货币委员会（MPC）最新会议内容显示出有一些成员认为利率决定处于一种更加微妙的平衡状态。今天金融时报（FT）将采访MPC 的一个成员（Martin Weale），此人就是持此观点的成员之一。虽然他认为目前此事无需操之过急，但还是说我们可以再等久一点，不过他没说是多久。总之，未来几个月之内，MPC 的一些成员可能会投票同意加息，而加息的后果最终将在货币上体现出来。

　　今天，欧洲一些市场因为耶稣升天节而关闭，这样交易区间会变得比较狭窄。我们要关注今天的美国GDP 数据，初步估计年增长可能只有0.1%。如果低于-0.5% 的预期，那么美元很自然会比较失望。

　　月末到了

　　FX markets are likely to see a subdued session today, with several European countries away for the Ascension day holiday. As we mentioned in our daily, AUDNZD was the most interesting move overnight, pushing above the 1.0950 level to take it above levels seen in early February and to tackle levels last seen in mid-December. This cross was the big mover of last year and with New Zealand having raised rates to 3.00% many were looking for continued downside, but the Aussie has continued to perform well, so this latest moves will have likely shaken out more Aussie shorts, but it’s difficult to take on a more bullish stance should New Zealand pause its tightening cycle this year, as seems likely.

　　今天的外汇市场可能会比较压抑，因为欧洲一些国家正在过耶稣升天节。正如我们在每日简报种提到的，澳元新元是这一天最让人感兴趣的货币对，爬升到了1.0950 之上；高于二月初的水平，并且向着去年十二月中的水平冲刺。此交叉盘是去年的大焦点，而且由于新西兰将利率提升到了3.00%，很多人都希望此交叉盘能持续下行，但是澳元一直表现不错，因此最近的一些变化将迫使一些人扔掉澳元短仓。不过，如果新西兰今年暂停其紧缩的话，将很难保持一个更加看涨的立场，不过这只是可能。