There’s no doubt that a calmer tone has emerged in markets this week.Stocks have recovered for most of the week and the spike higher in forward volatility measures seen in both FX and even more so in equities have been partially reversed.This has also allowed the dollar to recover from the mid-October lows(dollar index),naturally helped by the move higher in US 2 year yields,from the low just above 0.30%to around 0.38%now.But the dynamics are not powerful enough to re-establish the trends of Q3.In the Eurozone,we saw a mix of data on Thursday,preliminary PMIs showing weaker than expected readings in France,but better readings for Germany.This managed to put some power behind the single currency,but it proved to be largely fleeting in nature.It was against the yen that dollar strength was most in evidence,naturally helped by the better tone to stocks that has been in evidence so far this week.　　

毫无疑问这一周市场似乎开始平静了。这一周大部分时间里股票在恢复，原先预期的外汇和股票波动走高也许不会出现了。这种局面也让美元从十月中的低点（美元指数）开始恢复；显然，恢复的原因就是美国两年期债券收益的走高，后者从0.30%左右上升到现在的0.38%。不过目前的局势还不足以重建第三季度的趋势。在欧元区我们发现周四的数据比较让人觉得矛盾，法国的初步PMI数据比预期要疲软，不过德国的PMI似乎不错。这种情况给欧元提供了一些动力，但这种动力可能本质上转瞬即逝。美元针对日元的走强非常显著，显然其原因就是这一周到目前为止股票的情况不错。　　

For today,the focus remains on growth with the release of UK GDP data.This is the first reading for Q3 and is expected to show the quarterly growth rate fall from 0.9%to 0.7%.The UK economy has outperformed in recent quarters,both compared to Europe and also against its G10 counterparts.But compared to three months ago,the impact of this on the currency has changed dramatically.Back then,the market was gearing up for a potential rate increase before year end.Now,with slower growth globally and especially in Europe,this is not the case,with inflation having also fallen quicker than anticipated by the Bank of England.For sterling,the scope for further losses remains in place,but with rate increases now expected to start in August next year,it has largely priced-in this changed scenario.We nudged very briefly below the 1.60 level on cable yesterday,so that will remain the initial support level for today.Just US home sales data to watch later on at 14:00 GMT,with Eurozone bank stress tests(released Sunday)potentially impacting the euro early on Monday.　　

今天，焦点还是在英国发布的GDP数据上。这是第三季度的第一次数据，预期季度增长率应该会从0.9%下降到0.7%。与欧洲大陆和十国集团其他国家比较，最近几个季度英国的经济表现很好。但和三个月之前比较，货币受到的影响则非常不同。三个月之前，市场已经准备好年底加息会来临。但现在，全球增长乏力，欧洲的情况却不尽相同；通胀下降的速度比英格兰银行的预测要更快。对于英镑来说，未来出现损失还是可能发生的；不过，由于加息可能在明年八月开始，英镑已经将此考虑到定价之中了。昨天，英镑美元轻微变动到了1.60之上，这应该是今天的初始支撑点。格林尼治时间14点30分美国将发布房屋销售数据，而欧元区银行压力测试数据（周日发布）可能会在周一影响到欧元。　　

英国GDP和预期一致　　

UK GDP rose 0.7%QoQ in Q3,in line with expectation.Cable has popped higher by around 20 pips to 1.6050,just on short-covering and the fact that support at 1.60 now looks a little safer now near-term risk has been removed.　　

第三季度英国GDP同季度增长0.7%，和预期一致。英镑美元走高了20点到了1.6050，起因就是空头回补，以及1.60处的支撑点看起来比较安全了；因为近期内似乎没有什么风险会出现。