07/08/13@ 07:24 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20130807/yingbang-chuxian-gengduo-bodong

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　GBP:The inflation report is released at 09:30 GMT and could prompt a fairly volatile session for sterling given the many factors to look at (see below).

　　AUD:Employment data will be released overnight. The RBA indicated a more neutral outlook on interest rates so firmer employment data could allow the Aussie to further build a base for a short-term reversal higher.

　　英镑：格林尼治时间9点30分发布了通胀报告，考虑到多种因素的存在（见下文）在交易期间这可能会给英镑造成相当的波动。

　　澳元：就业数据将发布。澳洲央行指出利率之前景变化不大，因此就业数据更稳定的话将有可能让澳元为短期逆转走高打下进一步的基础。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　This could be a tricky day for sterling. The Bank of England releases its first inflation report under its new Governor Mark Carney and he’s said that he will give more details about potential forward guidance from the bank. This means giving more solid indication of future policy, either via a time-frame or dependent on the evolution of data such as output or employment. We had hints of this in July, when the statement accompanying the rate decision suggested the market had run ahead of itself in pricing the risk of higher rates (largely owing to the change in US interest rate expectations). So sterling will have to balance any change in policy on this front with what will likely be an upward revision to growth projections form the Bank. As such, it could well be that the initial reaction does not hold and the details are digested, but ultimately forward guidance will be aimed at keeping short-term market interest rates low, which will ultimately prove negative for the currency.

　　今天对英镑来说可能比较严峻。英格兰银行发布了其新总裁Mark Carney 上任以来的第一个通胀报告，而新总裁说他会提供更多关于银行可能发布的先期指导的细节。这意味着未来政策会越来越明确，或是通过时间显现，或者是取决于数据的演进，例如输出或者就业等数据。七月份我们就发现了这种迹象，期间声明加上利率决定显示出市场对于利率上升出现了误判（主要是因为对美国利率的预期出现了变化）因此英镑将不得不通过提高对经济增长的预测来平衡政策方面的变化。因此，也有可能是一开始的反应没有坚持下来而且其中的细节部分被忽略了，不过先期指导最终将会以降低短期市场利率为目的，而这种情况对于英镑造成的最终影响也是负面的。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　JPY:The yen benefitting overnight from the weaker tone to stocks, the Nikkei down 4%. The (inverse) relationship between the yen and stocks remains fairly pronounced, although has been declining from the near-terms peak seen in July. The BoJ meets today, with the announcement tomorrow.

　　AUD:Weakening a little during Asian trade, but holding on to the majority of the gains seen after the RBA decision yesterday. The main question is whether a near-term base can be formed to move the Aussie back above the 0.90 level against the USD on a sustained basis.

　　GBP:Sterling was a little reluctant to push ahead on yesterday’s better than expected production data, which showed output rising 1.1% on the month. GBPUSD still appears reluctant to push above the 1.54 area for now.

　　EUR: Not the easiest trading conditions on EURUSD right now and whilst we did push above the 1.33 level yesterday and have held above there for most of the Asia session, there remains plenty of offers above this level which are serving to cap further gains.

　　日元：前一天日元由于股票疲软的趋势而得到益处，日经指数下降了4%。日元和股票之间的（逆向）关系仍然相当显著，不过这种关系自从七月出现高峰以来也已经在消逝了。今天日本银行将举行会议，明天会有公告发布。

　　澳元：亚洲交易期内疲软了一些，不过昨天澳洲央行的决定发布后澳元还是守住了上涨的大部分空间。主要的问题就是近期形成的基础能否让澳元针对美元稳定的回到0.90之上。

　　英镑：昨天的生产数据比预期要好，当月上升了1.1%，但英镑对于前途却有点迟疑。目前英镑美元看起来仍然无法推进到1.54之上。

　　欧元：目前欧元美元的交易环境不是最简单的，而昨天我们确实推进到了1.33之上并在亚洲盘口的大部分时间内保住了这个地位，不过这个水平之上还是出现了很多报价行为进而阻止了进一步的上升。

　　FX Alerts

　　AUD HOME LOANS M/M AT 2.7%

　　澳洲房贷月环比2.7%

　　07/08/13@ 01:36 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130807/aozhou-fangdai-yuehuanbi-27

　　AUD Home Loans m/m at 2.7% (actual) vs 2.2% (forecast);

　　AUDUSD currently trading at 0.8965;

　　澳大利亚房贷月环比为2.7%（实际），而预测是2.2%。

　　澳元美元目前位于0.8965

　　FX Alerts

　　STERLING HIT BY BOE FORWARD GUIDANCE

　　英镑受到英格兰银行先期指导的打击

　　07/08/13@ 09:36 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130807/yingbang-shoudao-yinggelan-yinhang-xianqi-zhidao-daji

　　Sterling hit by Bank of England inflation report, with BoE introducing forward guidance, linking low rates to improvement in employment. GBP volatile, 1.5250 currently from low of 1.5206.

　　英镑受到英格兰银行通胀报告的打击，同时英格兰银行还发布了先期指导，将低利率和就业的改善联系了起来。英镑在波动，从低点1.5206变动到了目前的1.5250。